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The September 2025 Chief Economists Outlook from the World Economic Forum reveals cautious optimism about global economic prospects, with regional divergence and persistent inflation concerns. The report highlights shifting monetary policy expectations, labor market transformations, and the growing impact of AI on productivity and employment patterns across major economies.
The UK economy shows signs of slowing growth amid new fiscal measures, with Q3 GDP rising just 0.1% and the OECD warning of headwinds from tax rises. Household energy bills see modest relief, but public sentiment on the Autumn Budget remains skeptical, with over half fearing it will worsen their finances. Banking resilience provides stability, yet persistent inflation concerns linger as the UK risks topping G7 inflation rankings.
This week brought cautious optimism as the Economic Optimism Index rebounded sharply from a 17-month low, though sentiment remains below neutral levels. Mixed signals emerged: consumer confidence showed modest improvement while employment data revealed growing regional weaknesses. With government shutdown delays affecting key GDP reports, investors navigated revised growth forecasts and persistent inflation concerns.
UK GDP grew by just 0.1% in the three months to September 2025, reflecting subdued economic activity. Services provided modest support with 0.2% growth, while production declined 0.5% driven by manufacturing weakness. Monthly GDP fell 0.1% in September alone, highlighting ongoing economic challenges despite year-on-year growth of 1.3%.