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Consumers are keeping the U.S. expansion alive. They just don’t have much of a safety net left.
U.S. household debt has hit a record $18.6 trillion, but each debt category is telling a different story. Mortgage borrowers look solid, student loan delinquencies are surging, and subprime auto credit is flashing its strongest warning in decades. For anyone tracking the economy, these divergent signals matter.
U.S. holiday spending rose in 2025, according to Visa and NRF data, but inflation, discount-driven shopping, and signs of consumer stress shaped how — and where — Americans spent their money.
2025 ended with the auto-loan market quietly splitting in two: the top half of borrowers keep upgrading to $50k+ trucks and EVs at low rates, while everyone else is getting priced out, falling behind, or losing their car altogether. One stark sign: subprime delinquencies hit their worst level in over 30 years, and 1 in 4 trade-ins are now underwater by nearly $7,000. The only real bright spot is electric vehicles — leasing has become the workaround that’s keeping green sales alive.
U.S. personal income and disposable income both rose 0.4% in August 2025, while nominal spending climbed 0.6%. With prices up just 0.3%, real consumer spending advanced a solid 0.4% and the personal saving rate jumped to 4.6%. The data portray a healthy, balanced household sector: confident enough to keep spending but rebuilding buffers — textbook soft-landing dynamics.
BYD has overtaken Tesla in Europe, marking a turning point in the global EV race as BYD’s volume-driven, vertically integrated model outpaces Tesla’s software-led strategy. While BYD leverages in-house battery production and aggressive pricing to gain market share, Tesla’s focus on premium BEVs and proprietary technologies faces margin pressure and stiffening competition. BYD’s global expansion, supported by massive new factories and a vast workforce, contrasts with Tesla’s targeted giga-factory rollout and innovation-centric culture. Political headwinds such as EU tariffs and waning subsidies further complicate each company’s path, underlining their contrasting approaches to risk and scale. As battle lines shift from technology to manufacturing muscle, the EV industry’s future will likely hinge on who best fuses cost-control, supply chain mastery, and breakthrough innovation.
2025 ended with the auto-loan market quietly splitting in two: the top half of borrowers keep upgrading to $50k+ trucks and EVs at low rates, while everyone else is getting priced out, falling behind, or losing their car altogether. One stark sign: subprime delinquencies hit their worst level in over 30 years, and 1 in 4 trade-ins are now underwater by nearly $7,000. The only real bright spot is electric vehicles — leasing has become the workaround that’s keeping green sales alive.
Buy Now Pay Later drove record holiday online spending, enabling consumers to buy higher-value items while managing cash flow, but heavy reliance on deferred payments suggests this surge reflects short-term financial manoeuvring rather than stronger underlying demand.
October 2025 CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor (released November 10) shows total retail sales up 0.6% MoM and 5% YoY, with core retail (ex-autos, gas, restaurants) also rising 0.6% MoM and 4.89% YoY. The strongest pre-holiday read of the year confirms resilient consumer momentum heading into the peak shopping season.
Advance monthly retail and food services sales for September 2025 were $733.3 billion, up 0.2% (±0.4%) from August 2025 and up 4.3% (±0.5%) above September 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Report, November 25 2025). The month-over-month gain is statistically indistinguishable from zero given the ±0.4% margin of error, indicating essentially flat real-volume spending after the back-to-school bump. The still-solid 4.3% year-over-year increase continues to reflect the resilience of the U.S. consumer despite elevated interest rates, sticky core inflation, and tariff-related uncertainty.
UK retail sales volumes fell 1.1% MoM in October 2025 — the first monthly decline since May — as shoppers held back ahead of Black Friday. Despite the headline drop, volumes remain up 0.2% YoY and 1.1% over the latest three months, while online sales values rose 4.8% YoY and held a steady 28.1% share. The data point to a clear pre-promotion lull rather than a broader consumer retreat.