Delayed Release of the November 2025 BLS Employment Situation Report: Analysis of the Latest Available Data (September 2025 Reference Period)

The September 2025 Employment Situation report, published November 20, 2025, shows total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 119,000, driven exclusively by private-service-providing industries, with health care (+43,000) and food services (+37,000) accounting for the majority of gains. Government employment was essentially flat, marked by a 3,000 decline in federal jobs. The official U-3 unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%, with 7.6 million persons unemployed. Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm employees rose 0.2% month-over-month to $36.67 (+3.8% year-over-year), while average weekly hours held steady at 34.2. Prior-month revisions subtracted a combined 33,000 jobs from July and August estimates. These figures reflect a labor market with persistent but decelerating job growth concentrated in lower-wage service sectors, stable headline unemployment despite rising long-term joblessness (1.8 million, or 23.6% of unemployed), and nominal wage gains that continue to outpace recent inflation trends.

The U.S. labor market entering autumn 2025 exhibited slowing momentum, with nonfarm payroll gains averaging below 120,000 in recent months and the unemployment rate elevated relative to its 2024 lows. The September 2025 report—delayed from its original October release date due to the appropriations lapse—provides the most recent benchmark before a permanent data gap in October household metrics and a further delay of the November report to December 16, 2025. This analysis draws exclusively from the published September 2025 Establishment and Household Survey data to assess payroll trends, unemployment measures, wage dynamics, sectoral composition, and reliability, offering stakeholders the latest official snapshot amid heightened statistical uncertainty.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 119,000 in September 2025, entirely attributable to the private service-producing sector. Goods-producing industries showed no net change, while government payrolls declined marginally. Private-sector payrolls accounted for the full 119,000 gain plus the offsetting federal decline, implying approximately +122,000 private jobs net of the -3,000 federal loss. Federal government employment fell 3,000, continuing a cumulative decline of 97,000 from its January 2025 peak. State and local government showed little change.

The official U-3 unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in September 2025, little changed over the month, with 7.6 million persons unemployed (up from 6.9 million a year earlier). The broader U-6 measure of labor underutilization is not explicitly reported for September but historically tracks around 8 percentage points higher when long-term unemployment and marginal attachment remain elevated. The labor force participation rate held at 62.4%, while the employment-population ratio was 59.7% (down 0.4 percentage point year-over-year). The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was 1.7 million, little changed, including 557,000 discouraged workers who believed no jobs were available for them.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees rose $0.09 (+0.2%) to $36.67 in September 2025, yielding a 3.8% year-over-year increase. Production and nonsupervisory employees saw a $0.08 (+0.3%) gain to $31.53. With CPI inflation running below 3% in recent months, real hourly earnings continued modest gains. Average weekly hours for private nonfarm employees remained unchanged at 34.2, implying stable weekly earnings growth of approximately 0.2%. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was 4.6 million, little changed.

Gains were concentrated in health care (+43,000, including +23,000 in ambulatory health care services and +16,000 in hospitals), food services and drinking places (+37,000), and social assistance (+14,000, led by individual and family services +20,000). These additions reflect ongoing demand for in-person consumer and care services. Declines occurred in transportation and warehousing (-25,000, with warehousing and storage -11,000 and couriers/messengers -7,000) and federal government (-3,000). Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; and most other major industries showed little or no change.

The +119,000 payroll gain materially exceeded consensus expectations of approximately +50,000–+100,000 (delayed forecasts adjusted for prior weak months). Combined with stable 4.4% unemployment and 3.8% nominal wage growth, the report signals resilience in consumer-facing services but persistent softness elsewhere, likely reinforcing stakeholder views of a “soft landing” scenario rather than imminent recession.

July 2025 payrolls were revised down by 7,000 (from +79,000 to +72,000), and August revised down by 26,000 (from +22,000 to -4,000), reducing combined July–August estimates by 33,000. These downward adjustments confirm a weaker third-quarter trend than initially reported. The establishment survey achieved an unusually high 80.2% response rate due to extended collection, enhancing reliability for September payrolls. However, the complete absence of October household data creates an irreversible discontinuity in unemployment, participation, and marginal attachment series. Stable U-3 despite low job growth reflects demographic constraints and reduced labor supply rather than robust demand, exacerbated by classification of marginally attached persons outside the official labor force.

Individuals: With gains limited to health care and food services, workers in goods-producing or logistics sectors face elevated reemployment risk; upskilling toward ambulatory care or social assistance roles is supported by +43,000 and +14,000 respective gains. Businesses: Persistent transportation/warehousing losses (-25,000) signal supply-chain caution; firms should monitor real wage gains (+~1% annualized above inflation) when planning 2026 compensation. Policymakers: Stable 4.4% U-3 and 3.8% nominal earnings growth argue against aggressive easing, though the permanent October data gap impairs Q4 visibility; supplemental high-frequency indicators (e.g., claims, ADP) are recommended until December 16 release. Researchers: Treat Q4 2025 time series with discontinuity adjustments; the 97,000 federal job decline since January provides a natural experiment on public-sector retrenchment effects.

September 2025 delivered modest payroll expansion (+119,000) entirely from private services, stable unemployment at 4.4%, and continued real wage improvement amid downward prior-month revisions. The labor market exhibits deceleration without collapse, but the forthcoming permanent October household data gap and delayed November release on December 16, 2025, will prolong uncertainty into year-end policy and budgeting cycles.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025, November 20). The Employment Situation — September 2025 (USDL-25-1487). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization (historical context for U-6 inference). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Commissioner’s Statement on delays and October data cancellation