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Buy Now Pay Later drove record holiday online spending, enabling consumers to buy higher-value items while managing cash flow, but heavy reliance on deferred payments suggests this surge reflects short-term financial manoeuvring rather than stronger underlying demand.
Advance monthly retail and food services sales for September 2025 were $733.3 billion, up 0.2% (±0.4%) from August 2025 and up 4.3% (±0.5%) above September 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Report, November 25 2025). The month-over-month gain is statistically indistinguishable from zero given the ±0.4% margin of error, indicating essentially flat real-volume spending after the back-to-school bump. The still-solid 4.3% year-over-year increase continues to reflect the resilience of the U.S. consumer despite elevated interest rates, sticky core inflation, and tariff-related uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve's G.19 report for September 2025 shows a rebound in consumer credit growth, with total outstanding reaching $5,076.6 billion and flows at an annual rate of $157.1 billion. Revolving credit increased modestly after August's contraction, while nonrevolving credit continued steady expansion. This suggests stabilizing household borrowing amid economic resilience. Key figures include a 3.1% annual rate for total credit, 1.5% for revolving, and 3.7% for nonrevolving. Overall, the data points to cautious optimism for consumer spending heading into the holidays.
UK retail sales volumes fell 1.1% MoM in October 2025 — the first monthly decline since May — as shoppers held back ahead of Black Friday. Despite the headline drop, volumes remain up 0.2% YoY and 1.1% over the latest three months, while online sales values rose 4.8% YoY and held a steady 28.1% share. The data point to a clear pre-promotion lull rather than a broader consumer retreat.
October 2025 CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor (released November 10) shows total retail sales up 0.6% MoM and 5% YoY, with core retail (ex-autos, gas, restaurants) also rising 0.6% MoM and 4.89% YoY. The strongest pre-holiday read of the year confirms resilient consumer momentum heading into the peak shopping season.